12 May 2026
An encouraging update from Greggs points to improving momentum as the year has progressed, despite a still-muted consumer backdrop. Like-for-like sales rose 2.5% over the first 19 weeks of 2026, accelerating to 3.3% in the most recent 10 weeks, suggesting trading conditions have stabilised and demand is responding to a more compelling offer.
Menu development continues to underpin growth. The rollout of the chicken roll alongside the core sausage and vegan ranges has landed well, while refreshed salads and an expanded drinks offer, including matcha, are helping Greggs stay relevant with younger consumers. Growth is also being supported by partnerships with franchisees and grocery retailers, and the opening of its first airport store outside the UK at Tenerife South with Lagardère Travel Retail marks a small but notable step in broadening the estate.
Cost guidance is unchanged, with management still pointing to around 3% inflation for the year. Near-term visibility is helped by around five months of food and packaging cover and 85% of energy fixed, although a prolonged geopolitical backdrop would likely see pressure build into late 2026 and 2027, as is the case across much of the food retail sector. Against that backdrop, the valuation looks undemanding. At around 11.8x earnings, the shares are trading at their lowest multiple in five years, which looks hard to reconcile with the scope for further menu innovation, improving digital capability, increased supply chain capacity and the prospect of stronger cash returns over time.
