28 August 2026
If you are covering the latest HMRC property transaction data, please see the following comment from Ian Futcher, financial planner at Quilter:
"Another month of slightly weaker transaction activity suggests the housing market remains stuck in a holding pattern. Seasonally adjusted residential transactions fell by 2% in July and are now 1% lower than a year ago, indicating that while activity has not fallen off a cliff, the market continues to struggle to build meaningful momentum.
"Much of this reflects the persistent uncertainty facing prospective buyers. While expectations remain that interest rates will gradually fall over the longer term, the path has become less clear in recent months. The on-and-off nature of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has fuelled renewed inflation concerns and volatility in swap rates, prompting lenders to reverse some of the mortgage rate reductions seen earlier in the year. Average two- and five-year fixed mortgage rates rose during July to around 5.6%, highlighting that borrowing costs remain a significant hurdle for many would-be movers.
"At the same time, affordability remains stretched. House prices remain high relative to earnings, deposit requirements continue to present a considerable barrier for first-time buyers and mortgage costs are still well above the levels many households enjoyed prior to 2022. Against that backdrop, it is perhaps unsurprising that many buyers are choosing to wait for greater certainty before making a move.
"The challenge for the housing market is that confidence remains fragile. Even small changes in mortgage pricing or interest rate expectations can have a meaningful impact on affordability and borrowing power. Until buyers have greater confidence over the direction of inflation, interest rates and the wider economy, transaction levels are likely to remain subdued, leaving the market treading water rather than entering a period of sustained growth."
