13 February 2026
If you are covering the latest inflation data from the US, please find below a comment from Stuart Clark, portfolio manager at Quilter:
“Today’s inflation data from the US points to some difficult decisions looming for the Federal Reserve in its rate setting policy. After a stronger than expected jobs print earlier this week, inflation has fallen more than expected to 2.4% year-on-year, with core inflation rising 2.5% - approaching five years above the 2% target. Lower gas prices were the key driver to bringing inflation down more than expected, but how long this downward trajectory remains to be seen. Tariffs continue to cause prices to fluctuate, while President Trump wants a hot economy heading into the midterms, so we still see inflation pick up once again.
“This is all leaving a cloudy picture for monetary policy setters. Recent months has seen the Fed focus more on the employment data as concerns began to present themselves that the labour market was faltering. On the surface, the payrolls number earlier this week put some of that to bed, but under the surface things remain volatile and as such there is no easy path when it comes to interest rates.
“While the continued downward trend towards target will undoubtedly be used to encourage the Fed to cut rates sooner rather than later, and opens the door to Kevin Warsh being more accommodative to President Trump when his term begins, it is by no means a foregone conclusion that the US needs easier monetary policy at this point in time.”
