21 July 2026
Inheritance Tax receipts rise in June
"Inheritance Tax receipts for April to June are £2.3 billion, which is £96 million higher than the same period last year.
"While monthly figures can fluctuate, the longer-term picture remains one of rising tax exposure. Frozen thresholds and growing asset values continue to pull more estates into the scope of inheritance tax.
"With Andy Burnham now established as prime minister, questions around the future direction of wealth taxation are likely to intensify. Burnham has previously argued for reform of wealth taxes and has expressed support for alternatives to the current inheritance tax system, although any significant changes would need to be carefully balanced against the government's wider economic priorities.
"There is already speculation about whether ministers could revisit aspects of estate, property or wealth taxation as they search for revenue. While such discussions are likely to continue, families should be cautious about making planning decisions based on rumours rather than policy. The reality is that major reforms often take time to develop and implement.
"In the meantime, the direction of travel is already well established. Frozen thresholds and the inclusion of pensions from April 2027 point towards steadily rising liabilities, placing greater emphasis on early and proactive estate planning based on the known rules. With just a matter of months before pensions become liable to IHT it is worth reviewing plans to see if they are fit for the future.
Income Tax and National Insurance continue to drive receipts higher
"PAYE Income Tax and National Insurance contributions for April to June stand at £132.3 billion, which is £11.5 billion higher than the same period last year
"Fiscal drag has become one of the Treasury's most effective revenue-raising tools. Frozen thresholds continue to pull more people into paying tax and push others into higher tax bands, allowing billions to be raised without the need for a headline tax rise.
"As HMRC's income tax liabilities statistics published last week highlighted, the number of people paying income tax is projected to rise from 33 million when thresholds were first frozen in 2021/22 to 40.8 million by 2026/27. The number of higher-rate taxpayers is also expected to reach 7.7 million, illustrating how tax bands originally aimed at higher earners are increasingly reaching a much broader group of professionals.
"What began as a temporary measure has evolved into one of the Treasury's most reliable sources of additional revenue. The longer frozen thresholds remain in place, the more dependent the public finances become on the receipts they generate.
Capital Gains Tax highlights impact of uncertainty
"Capital Gains Tax receipts for June are £192 million, £27 million higher than the same month last year.
"While monthly movements can be uneven, the broader trend reflects a tighter Capital Gains Tax regime following recent reductions to allowances and increases in tax rates.
"Capital Gains Tax is also likely to remain at the centre of political debate. Burnham has previously argued that wealth and investment income should play a greater role in supporting public finances, and investors will be watching closely for any indication of the government's future direction on wealth taxation.
"Recent speculation has included possible changes to the treatment of assets on death alongside wider discussions around property and wealth taxation. Whether any of these proposals ultimately materialise remains uncertain, but the debate itself can influence behaviour. Investors may accelerate or delay disposals depending on how they perceive the direction of travel, making receipts more volatile and harder to predict.
"At a time when the government is also seeking to encourage greater participation in investing, stability and predictability in the tax system will be important. Frequent speculation around future tax changes risks encouraging short-term decision making rather than the long-term investing approach that policymakers are increasingly trying to promote.
"For investors, this reinforces the importance of making full use of available tax efficient wrappers like ISAs and carefully considering the timing of disposals as the tax landscape continues to evolve."
