8 May 2026
If you are covering the latest Halifax house price index, please see the following comment from Karen Noye, mortgage expert at Quilter:
“UK house prices fell by a further 0.1% in April following a 0.5% fall in March, taking the average property value to £299,313, according to the latest Halifax index. Annual growth also stalled considerably, dropping to just 0.4% down from 0.8% the month prior.
“The monthly move is less important than the fact the market is still having to price homes against a rapidly shifting interest-rate backdrop, and the Bank of England’s decision to hold the Bank Rate at 3.75% last week did not close down the risk of higher borrowing costs. One MPC member voted for an immediate rise and the Bank has made clear that policy will depend heavily on whether the Middle East energy shock feeds through into wages, prices and inflation expectations. That has left mortgage markets exposed to geopolitics once again.
“The recent shift in tone around US-Iran talks is therefore significant for the housing market. If a credible peace deal is brokered and oil prices continue to ease, the case for further UK rate rises becomes harder to sustain. Swap rates would be expected to stabilise and potentially move lower, giving lenders more scope to trim fixed mortgage pricing.
“That would not transform affordability overnight, but it would remove one of the biggest sources of uncertainty facing buyers. A market that has been subdued due to caution could find some support if households can see a clearer path for mortgage rates.
“If energy prices settle and swap rates drift lower, mortgage lenders are likely to compete harder for borrowers. If the conflict escalates again, the risk is that recent mortgage rate improvements unwind quickly.
“For buyers and those approaching remortgage, the message is not to try to call the bottom of the market. The more practical point is that mortgage pricing could move quickly in either direction, so borrowers should review options early and be ready to act if lenders reprice.”
