19 February 2026
If you are covering Airbus’ Q4 results, please see the following comment from Matt Dorset, equity research analyst at Quilter Cheviot:
“Airbus delivered a solid set of fourth quarter results, with revenue up 5% year on year and adjusted earnings before interest and taxes rising a strong 16%. Free cash flow also came in ahead of expectations at 5%. All three of the company’s segments contributed to the improvement, and defence and space were a notable driver of the strength in earnings before interest and taxes, having recovered following the large charges seen in 2024.
“However, the market’s focus this morning is firmly on the guidance for next year, which came in weaker than expected. Airbus is targeting 870 aircraft deliveries, up by 10% year on year, earnings before interest and taxes of £7.5 billion which is up 5%, and free cash flow slightly below the 2025 level. This guidance is below consensus across the board and will inevitably trigger downgrades. In addition, Airbus now expects to reach a production rate of 70-75 A320 aircraft by the end of 2027, compared to 75 previously.
“While this is driven in part by foreign exchange, the bigger issue remains weaker forecast deliveries and ongoing supply chain constraints. Management highlighted continued pressure on engine availability from Pratt & Whitney, which appears to be the key bottleneck. This will disappoint investors who had hoped last year’s tentative signs of stabilisation, aside from the fuselage issue in December, would translate into improving supply chains this year.
“The new targets undoubtedly look more achievable, and given management has had to revise guidance mid-year for the last few years, it may be taking a more conservative stance. Importantly, the long term demand outlook remains exceptionally strong. Airbus continues to build an already substantial order backlog and retains a favourable competitive position relative to Boeing.”
