8 October 2025
If you are covering Unite's latest trading statement, please see the following comment from Oli Creasey, head of property research at Quilter Cheviot:
Unite Group's recent updates have been hinting at decelerating demand for student accommodation ahead of the 2025/26 academic year. Today's results are for the period ending 30th September, when most university undergraduates have started lectures and moved into their chosen accommodation, and the company has run out of road to hit last year's occupancy levels.
Occupancy of 95.2%, and rental growth of 4% is far from a bad result. However, it doesn't compare well to last year (97.5% and 8.2% respectively), although rental growth in particular was still being impacted by high inflation a year ago. It also is marginally below the company's own guidance of "at least 97% occupancy" and 4-5% rental growth.
It is easy to assume that it would be a drop-off in international student numbers driving this. However, while national-level student visa numbers are down -11% compared to 2023 levels (when postgraduate restrictions were first brought in), Unite's sales to international students are in-line with last year. Instead, it is fewer rooms being sold to UK students that has caused the drop-off in occupancy (a cohort perhaps more susceptible to affordability issues), as well as new supply coming on line in a handful of the regional cities where Unite operates.
Quarterly changes in property values have barely changed in Q3'25. Unite properties in London have increased marginally in value (0.4%), while those in regional cities haven't moved at all in the period, as positive rental growth has been entirely offset by outward yield movement. Combined, it's enough for our estimate of the company's NAV to nudge up, but investors will be watching closely to see how the company and the wider student accommodation market reacts to the new supply and evolution in student demand.
