30 April 2025
If you are covering the trading updates from Taylor Wimpey or Segro, please find comments below from Oli Creasey, property analyst at Quilter Cheviot:
Taylor Wimpey: mixed results
“Taylor Wimpey’s Q1 trading statement this morning is a mixed set of results. On the positive side, the spring selling season has so far progressed as expected, and macroeconomic factors have so far not had a meaningful impact on sales. Q1 sales rates per outlet slightly ahead of the same period in 2024, supported by a healthy level of mortgage availability. Housebuilding is an industry that ought to feel limited first-order impacts from trade tariffs, although a drop in consumer confidence could pose risks. However, Taylor Wimpey has reiterated previous guidance for completion volumes and average sale prices in 2025.
“While sales rates per outlet are incrementally up year-on-year, Taylor Wimpey is operating with fewer outlets than in 2024, leading to a 6% decline in sales volumes. This is a temporary issue, with Taylor Wimpey intending to open more outlets later in the year. Similarly, operating margins are likely to decline in H1 2025 compared due to lower pricing in the order book at the start of the year. Again, it appears that the pricing conditions have since improved, but the company has to work through these lower margin orders. Investors will be frustrated that the company is not yet signalling margin recovery, something that is starting to be visible elsewhere in the sector.
“Management have again highlighted that affordability remains strong at a national level, though buyers in the South of England are facing some challenges.”
Segro: CFO departing
“Segro’s Q1 2025 trading statement has a relatively confident tone, with management highlighting that most of its warehouse portfolio is geared towards domestic consumers, shielding it from tariff concerns. However, wider macroeconomic concerns may dent occupier confidence. Notably, Segro signed £13m in new headline rent during the quarter – around half of the equivalent figures in 2023 and 2024. We wouldn’t try to read too much into a single quarter’s worth of leasing data, and note that occupancy and customer retention remains high, as does rental uplift, with rent reviews and renewals resulting in a 25% uplift across the group’s portfolio. However, the slowdown could be indicative of higher economic uncertainty, and analysts will be watching closely for further signs in future updates.
“Segro also announced that CFO Soumen Das will retire at the end of 2025 to spend more time with his family. Having spent 15 years as CFO at Capital & Counties (now part of Shaftesbury Capital), Mr Das will have been tipped by many as the likely successor to Segro’s long-standing CEO David Sleath, who has held the role since 2010). His departure may lead to a change in succession planning alongside the hunt for a new CFO. Mr Das will remain at Segro until the end of 2025, ensuring a smooth transition, and we note that Segro has a well-regarded senior management team, so we would expect the change to cause little disruption to the business.”
