30 September 2025
UK property transactions dipped slightly in August, with HMRC’s provisional seasonally adjusted figures showing 93,630 residential transactions completed. That is 2% down on July, when activity had picked up for the third consecutive month, but still 2% higher than the same month a year ago. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, there were 103,610 transactions, 2% up on July but marginally lower than August 2024.
The figures highlight the fragile balance in the housing market. After a run of monthly increases over the summer, activity cooled in August as higher borrowing costs continue to weigh on buyers. Inflation remains sticky and despite the expectation that the Bank of England will be able to reduce interest rates in due course, recent weeks have seen some mortgage rates edge higher again, tempering enthusiasm and affordability.
In the non-residential market, seasonally adjusted transactions were estimated at 9,910 in August, down 3% on July and 2% on a year earlier. Non-seasonally adjusted figures were weaker still, falling 13% month-on-month. This suggests business investment in property is slowing, reflecting broader economic uncertainty ahead of the budget.
That budget is now just weeks away and the swirl of rumours around stamp duty reform and potential mansion taxes only adds to the uncertainty. While any reforms are designed to raise revenue or support particular groups of buyers, the risk is that speculation alone prompts some households and investors to delay moving or restructuring their portfolios. Rather than providing clarity, these debates can glue up the market in the short term, with buyers and sellers waiting to see whether they will be better or worse off once the Chancellor sets out her plans.
For now, transactions are likely to remain relatively subdued, with fluctuations driven not just by affordability and borrowing costs, but also by shifting expectations of what the government might announce in November.
