16 May 2025
If you are covering reports of a PHP formal bid for Assura, please see the following comment from Oli Creasey, head of property research at Quilter Cheviot:
“Earlier this week, Assura set out its timetable for investors to vote on the cash bid from KKR and Stonepeak, giving them just under three weeks to submit votes for or against the bid. At the time, PHP had made an indicative approach, but there was no competing bid.
“This afternoon, however, PHP has come back to the table with a formal offer which compares well versus the cash proposal from KKR. PHP is offering shareholders 0.3769 new PHP shares, 12.5p in cash, and the Assura dividend to be paid in July which is expected to be 0.84p. When combined, the offer is worth around 50.8p per Assura share.
“Given the equivalent offer from KKR is 48.56p, the PHP bid appears superior in financial terms and gives investors continued exposure to the UK’s primary healthcare property market via a listed company. However, the PHP bid is largely based on the company’s own share price, and so the value is liable to changes, both up and down, until any deal is closed.
“It is possible that KKR makes a counterbid, although historically, bidding wars tend not to occur in UK REIT M&A situations. This one having two competing bidders makes it unusual already. We also note that Assura recently provided the market with an updated NAV figure of 50.4p. As it stands, KKR would need to bid at a premium to NAV to be above the PHP bid, something the PE firm has appeared reluctant to do up to this point.
“Assura investors now have both options in front of them to choose from, and while there is no comment from the Assura board, who had previously recommended the lower KKR bid, the current value appears to be in the cash and share offer from PHP.”
