30 May 2025
If you are covering the latest monthly property transactions statistics from HMRC, please find below a comment from Karen Noye, mortgage expert at Quilter:
“The property market has been riding a rollercoaster in recent months, and today’s HMRC figures confirm what many expected – a post-March slump. After the buying rush to beat the return of higher Stamp Duty rates, transaction numbers have inevitably collapsed by 64% month-on-month, reflecting the temporary nature of that surge.
“On a year-on-year basis, transactions are also down considerable, with a drop of 28% on the year, painting a picture of a market that is normalising after artificial boosts. The slowdown in April also coincides with a modest contraction in UK house prices, which isn’t surprising – every time a stamp duty holiday ends, the market tends to catch its breath before regaining momentum.
“History tells us that when temporary tax reliefs drive the market, they often create frenzied spikes followed by sharp slowdowns. We saw this during the pandemic, and today’s figures are just another reminder that short-term incentives don’t guarantee long-term stability.
“However, don’t write off the market just yet. With the Bank of England trimming interest rates to 4.25%, mortgage rates have been drifting lower, with sub-4% deals becoming more common. As cheaper fixed-rate mortgages and lower reversion rates take hold, buyers emerging from their current deals could find the conditions much more favourable.
“A sustained downward trend in rates could tempt more buyers back into the market, potentially lifting house prices over the coming months. Next month’s data may reflect the early impact of this shift, especially if speculation of further rate cuts – possibly two or three more before year-end – gains traction.
“Looking further ahead, all eyes will be on Labour in the Autumn Budget to see if they extend a helping hand to first-time buyers. Yet, given the limited fiscal headroom available, any grand gestures seem unlikely – at least for now.”
