1 October 2025
Alongside this, data released yesterday shows UK property transactions dipped slightly in August. HMRC’s provisional seasonally adjusted figures showed 93,630 residential transactions completed, 2% lower than July but still 2% higher than the same month a year earlier. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, there were 103,610 transactions, up 2% on July but marginally below August 2024. After a run of increases over the summer, activity cooled in August as higher borrowing costs continue to weigh on buyers, underlining the fragile balance in the housing market.
On mortgage rates, the big picture is that markets expect the Bank of England to ease through 2026, but pricing is guided by swap rates and bank funding costs, which have been volatile. After a steady downward trend through the summer, some lenders have nudged fixed rates higher again in recent weeks, tempering enthusiasm and affordability. If you are refinancing in the next six months, it is worth obtaining a product transfer or remortgage offer now and then revisiting it if pricing improves before your new deal completes.
The Autumn Budget is now just weeks away and speculation about stamp duty reform or mansion taxes is swirling. While reforms are designed to raise revenue or support particular groups of buyers, the risk is that rumours alone prompt households and investors to delay moving or restructuring their portfolios. Rather than providing clarity, such debate can glue up the market in the short term. For now, transactions are likely to remain relatively subdued, with fluctuations driven not just by affordability and borrowing costs, but also by shifting expectations of what the government might announce in November.”
