20 August 2025
If you are covering the latest UK house price index, please see the following comment from Thomas Lambert, financial planner at Quilter:
“Today’s UK house price index for June 2025 shows that prices rose by 3.7% on an annual basis, bringing the average property price to £269,000. This headline figure sits against a market still struggling with affordability. Mortgage rates have eased from the highs, but typical fixes remain around the 4% mark, which keeps monthly payments far above the levels buyers grew used to in the 2010s.
“This morning’s inflation print ticked up again, which makes the path to lower interest rates longer and reinforces the affordability squeeze. On top of that, housing supply remains thin which keeps choice limited for buyers and keeps prices sticky.
“Policy noise is adding further uncertainty. Reports this week suggest the Treasury is considering taxing gains on primary residences above a high threshold or introducing new levies on expensive homes. If these rumours do materialise at the Autumn Budget brings, transactions could seize up through the winter as sellers consider sitting on their hands hoping that another government might reverse the changes. That would risk even tighter supply and, paradoxically, could push prices higher by intensifying competition, compounding problems for first-time buyers.
“Labour making the Mortgage Guarantee Scheme permanent helps at the margin, but it does not create homes or meaningfully lower borrowing costs. Without more supply and a clearer path on rates and taxation, the housing market could face a winter of discontent that drags into next year with even more people shut out.”
