1 October 2025
If you are covering Gregg's latest results, please see the following comment from Mamta Valechha, consumer discretionary analyst at Quilter Cheviot:
Greggs has delivered a reassuring trading update this morning, showing resilience in the face of challenging conditions earlier in the year. Following a weak July, when warm weather reduced footfall, trading has since picked up with total sales rising by 6.1% in the third quarter and like-for-like sales up 1.5%.
Performance continues to be underpinned by strong range development. The new autumn meal deal, offering three items for £5, has helped support demand, while Greggs has also extended its popular ‘Bake at Home’ range into Iceland and Tesco stores.
Although Greggs now expects to open a slightly lower number of net new stores in 2025 than previously planned, the pipeline into 2026 remains strong, supported by major new facilities in Derby and Kettering, due to open in 2026 and 2027 respectively.
The group has reiterated its full-year outlook, with an improving exit rate and a more benign cost inflation outlook as it heads into the final quarter of the year. After the headwinds caused by hot weather in the first half, today’s update provides welcome reassurance.
Valuation also remains supportive, with shares trading at around 12 times earnings compared to a five-year average of 23. With significant opportunities in menu innovation, evening trade, digital capacity and supply chain expansion, Greggs looks well positioned for sustainable growth.
