If you are covering the latest US jobs data, please see the following comment from Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter:
“Today’s delayed September payrolls report came in better than expected, but there is still evidence of continued softness in the US jobs market. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 119,000, while the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%.
“On the face of it, this jobs figure seems a marked improvement and is ahead of expectations, but it is worth noting the downward revisions to what had already been disappointing numbers in the months prior. July’s nonfarm payrolls figure was revised down by 7,000 to 72,000, while August’s dropped from 22,000 into negative territory, at -4,000 – a combined 33,000 lower. A subdued pace of job creation has become somewhat of a norm in recent months, and while September has surprised on the upside, the ongoing data uncertainty leaves a large question mark over the true state of the market.
“The Bureau of Labor Statistics has confirmed that the October print will not be released as the data collection did not take place during the government shutdown, meaning today’s release will be the final official labour market update before the Federal Reserve’s meeting on 10 December. Investors currently ascribe only a 25% probability of a rate cut, particularly following recent FOMC minutes showing ‘strongly differing views’. This has been interpreted as broadly hawkish, and expectations for further rate cuts by next July have been scaled back from roughly four cuts to nearer two.
“While September’s figures provide some insight, they have been superseded by more recent signals on the state of the economy, and the market is unlikely to have as much of a reaction as it usually would. Private data provider Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc reported earlier in November that US companies announced more job cuts in October 2025 than in the same month for the past two decades. This has been driven by technology and transportation, with pandemic-era hiring flipped into reverse and the rapid adoption of AI reshaping the economy. The two-speed economy in the US has been increasingly in the spotlight, and the ramifications will not only span companies and markets, but the political landscape too.”
