16 July 2025
If you are covering ASML’s latest financial results, please find below a comment from Ben Barringer, global technology analyst at Quilter Cheviot:
“The latest results from ASML can be summed up as ‘complicated’. Investors were watching the order book very closely and on the face of it looks very positive with Q2’s orders ahead of expectations. However, what is worrying is the guidance and this has weakened somewhat with the company confirming that revenues will be weaker than expected for Q3. This is all having a significant impact on its growth, with 2025 expected to come in at 15%, but it currently cannot confirm if 2026 is going to be a growth year or not – not an ideal place to be.
“ASML cites the macroeconomic environment and tariffs having an impact on the orders. More specifically, it is more likely uncertainty from China, memory capex uncertainty and the struggles at Intel and Samsung that are more likely to be hampering things. It is also crucial to watch what TSMC is doing – ASML’s biggest customer. TSMC is transitioning to a new style of 3D product and for now ASML’s products are not as in demand as they likely will be in a year or two. As a result, ASML is focusing on productivity and deriving value from that.
“Ultimately, this is a speed bump for what remains a high-quality company. It still has a big backlog so growth should still pull through, but uncertainty is no doubt abound. For a European tech business ASML is one of the best out there, but for investors looking to gain AI exposure, there are better players out there in the US and Asia. For now, semiconductor capital equipment is not the best way to play AI.”
