15 January 2025
If you are covering the latest trading statement from Vistry Group, please see comments below from Oli Creasey, property analyst at Quilter Cheviot
“2024 was a year to forget for Vistry Group. Three profit warnings, including the most recent one on Christmas Eve, caused the share price to fall more than 60% in Q4 2024. However, the FY trading statement, released today, seeks to demonstrate that the profit downgrades are now behind it, with the company reiterating FY24 profit guidance of approximately £250m, a 40% year-on-year decline.
“Vistry is the UK’s largest publicly-traded housebuilder by number of houses sold, with the company reporting sales growth of 7% in 2024, in line with yesterday’s figures from Persimmon. Unlike other housebuilders, Vistry has continued to grow volumes during the past years of higher interest rates by pivoting to a partnership model where homes are built in bulk for institutional partners rather than individual homeowners. However, the company continues to sell to the private market as well, albeit that segment saw a 15% fall in volumes over the year.
“The company has replaced management in the South division, which was the origin of 2024’s profit warnings, and is confident of rebuilding the business in this region, while also confirming management’s belief that the problems in the South were not reflective of the rest of the business.
“The outlook for 2025 remains unclear. Vistry has not yet released specific guidance but has stated that it expects profit and cash generation to improve year-on-year. While there has been an uplift in enquiries in January 2025, there are also headwinds that the company has to contend with, notably macroeconomic conditions, which have impacted both the private mortgage market and the partner-funded market. The company has highlighted the Government’s new Affordable Homes Programme as an important milestone in the partner-funded market but notes that market conditions still remain uncertain.”
