06 December 2024
If you are covering the latest US employment data, please see the following comment from Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot:
“Following a weak US jobs report in October, which saw hiring curtailed by a combination of storms and strikes, today’s figure for November shows nonfarm payrolls were much improved. This latest jobs report provides the Federal Reserve with its final snapshot of the state of the labour market before its monetary policy meeting later this month.
“The Fed will be pleased to see that employers added 227,000 jobs in November, a huge increase compared to the 36,000 reported in October, which was revised up from the 12,000 initially reported. However, this number is still somewhat impacted by the previous month’s disruption as many workers who would have been added in October were brought onto payrolls in November instead. Despite this, the overall level of hiring remains weaker than last year’s monthly average of 251,000.
“Meanwhile, the unemployment rate lifted marginally to 4.2%. While it is good that unemployment has been relatively steady of late, those who are unemployed are likely finding it much harder to land a new job given the overall slowdown in hiring.
“The market is currently pricing in another 0.25% interest rate cut, despite generally patient comments from voting members, and the continued relative weakness in the labour market makes this seem increasingly likely. However, the Fed could still surprise us and opt to hit pause on rates to give it more of a chance to assess the inflationary impact of Trump’s policies.”
