25 July 2024
If you are covering the latest US GDP data, please see the following comment from CJ Cowan, portfolio manager at Quilter Investors:
“The first estimate of US 2nd quarter real GDP growth came in higher than consensus expectations at 2.8% q/q annualised, double the first quarter’s 1.4% but still much slower than the 4.2% growth reported towards the end of last year.
“The Atlanta Fed’s Nowcast had been tracking at 2.6% prior to this release, but it appears the economy has picked up even more than expected. However, it is worth noting that there are a lot of estimates in the first cut of GDP which means the figure is often heavily revised one way or the other. Structural changes to the economy in recent years mean revisions can be even more significant now, so it is worth taking today’s print with a pinch of salt and keeping a close eye on future readings.
“The US economy remains in a stronger position than the UK and Europe, adding complexity to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision making and increasing the apparent risk of a reacceleration in inflation. This latest GDP print likely removes any hope of a July interest rate cut but we can still expect to see one or two by the end of the year.”
