27 September 2024
If you are covering the latest UK property transactions, please see the following comment from Holly Tomlinson, financial planner at Quilter:
"The latest property statistics for August 2024 offer a deeper look at the UK housing market’s resilience amid broader economic uncertainties. The provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of residential transactions stood at 90,210, up 5% from August 2023, though marginally lower—by less than 1%—than July 2024. This marks the third straight month of slight declines in seasonally adjusted figures, suggesting a gradual cooling typical during the summer. Nevertheless, the year-on-year increase highlights that the housing market has rebounded, as persistent inflation and interest rate pressures ease somewhat. Buyers are now better equipped to navigate these challenges, supported by a stabilising mortgage market, particularly as more 4% mortgage deals come into play and a realisation that rates are unlikely to get down to anything like the levels enjoyed pre and during the pandemic.
"More notably, non-seasonally adjusted data for August paints an even stronger picture of the residential sector. With 104,330 transactions, a 10% increase from August 2023 and an 8% rise from July, underlying demand remains robust. As the first budget from the Labour government approaches housing policy will no doubt remain a political priority but there is unlikely to be any significant measures to further buoy the property market, particularly with the government focused on addressing broader fiscal challenges, including the £22 billion fiscal black hole.
"Meanwhile, the non-residential property market continues to face tougher conditions. Seasonally adjusted non-residential transactions fell to 9,760 in August 2024, 3% lower than the previous year and down 1% from July. The non-seasonally adjusted figures tell a similar story, with an 8% month-on-month decline and a 4% year-on-year decrease. This softness in the commercial and industrial property sectors reflects businesses grappling with tighter credit conditions, weaker consumer spending, and lingering economic uncertainty. While the residential market shows resilience, the outlook for the non-residential sector is less optimistic.
"While the residential market continues to hold its ground, aided by strong buyer demand and more stable mortgage offerings, the non-residential sector faces a more challenging path forward. The housing market’s performance into the final quarter of 2024 will likely hinge on the trajectory of interest rates and broader economic conditions, but with Labour’s first budget expected to focus on broader fiscal policy rather than housing stimulus, it’s unlikely to provide significant additional support to this already cautious market."
