02 February 2024
If you are covering the latest employment figures from the US, please find below a comment from Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot:
“Once again the US has surpassed expectations with the latest jobs numbers showing an economy that has no intention of grinding to halt despite restrictive financial conditions. Talk of any rate cuts in the first half of this year are becoming harder and harder to envisage as the economy just keeps trundling on and the jobs data looks this strong.
“Ultimately, the soft landing narrative is becoming stronger and it appears the Federal Reserve has navigated things well. The inflation warning signs are no longer flashing, but they will still not want any fresh spike to arrive following any move downwards in rates. Given how cautious they were at the beginning of the hiking cycle, waiting for more concrete data, it will be similar on the way back down.
“This latest data point does potentially put them on a collision course with the US election, and given they will not want to look to have any say on the outcome, their job is likely to become more difficult the longer they wait for that first rate cut.”
