06 June 2024
If you are covering the European Central Bank’s decision to cut interest rates, please find below a comment from Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter Investors:
“The starting gun has been fired and the European Central Bank is the first out of the major three banks to start cutting rates. This is a significant move given it is the first rate cut from the ECB in five years, and ends what has been one of the most aggressive and swift rate hiking cycles in modern times.
“Importantly, this is not likely to be a single cut and done for a while, with signals suggesting a further cut or two are on the horizon this year as inflation has subsided. The ECB has stolen a march on the Bank of England and Federal Reserve – who are both potentially still a few months away from cutting – and will breathe life into an economy that desperately needs some form of stimulus.
“While this news was well expected, it will no doubt provide relief to consumers and businesses on the continent. Ever since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe has struggled to combat the economic shock this produced, but signs are now improving, although uneven across the continent. While inflation has ticked up in recent months, the economic recovery is beginning to play out. This puts the ECB in a good position to cut further into a slowly improving picture, although the messaging is likely to remain restrained and cautious. As such, there may be some pauses on the way back down for rates in order to limit the scope of any divergence with the Federal Reserve.
“This move also focuses eyes on the BoE, who will make its decision in a couple of weeks. The major central banks will not want to diverge too far from one another, and with political risk being ratcheted up, they also won’t want to be seen as too influential.”
