24 January 2023
If you are covering HMRC’s monthly property transactions statistics, please see the following comment from Karen Noye, mortgage expert at Quilter:
“The pressures of the cost-of-living crisis appear to be taking a real toll on the housing market, as the number of monthly property transactions has started to tail off. The provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of UK residential transactions in December 2022 is 101,920, 1% higher than December 2021, and 3% lower than November 2022.
“Property transactions have been slowing for some time, and the latest data show the start of the long-anticipated fall. House prices have seen a slight dip in the last couple of months, and they are expected to fall further throughout 2023. This fall in property transactions goes hand in hand with this expectation, as a reduction in demand will ultimately result in reduced prices.
“Mortgage rates rose very quickly towards the end of last year during the aftermath of the mini budget, which put a hold on many people’s plans to buy their first home or to move home as monthly costs became that much more unaffordable. While mortgage rates have since lowered slightly, they remain far higher than the sub 2% rates so many had become accustomed to in recent years and will still be unaffordable for many, which will only further reduce demand.
“The pace of property transactions is a key indicator of the health of the property market, and today’s results show just the beginning of what is likely to be a very tricky period.”
