10 February 2023
If you are covering the latest UK GDP data, please see the following comment from Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot:
“This morning’s GDP statistics show the UK has narrowly avoided the forecasted recession.
“While the numbers may appear positive for now, overall the economy is flatlining and it is difficult to see that changing in the short-term. As such, we are still likely to be in a recession at some point during 2023 – which is still expected to be long and shallow - so these figures do not provide a huge amount of comfort.
“The Bank of England may well feel vindicated that the economy is so far surviving interest rates, but the toll on households has still been huge due to rising energy bills and high inflation, while the retail and hospitality sectors have had to deal with significant strike action.
“These issues are yet to go away, and in reality are likely to hang around for some time yet. As such, it is no surprise to see the IMF predict the UK to be the weakest developed economy in 2023.
“With the spring budget fast approaching, there is significant pressure on the shoulders of Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt to find ways to stimulate growth.”
