28 March 2023
If you are covering the UK monthly property transactions statistics, please see the following comment from Karen Noye mortgage expert at Quilter:
"The provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of UK residential transactions in March 2023 indicates a significant drop of 19% compared to the same month last year, but a small uptick of 1% compared to the February 2023. Despite the current economic conditions, including the high cost of living, rising interest rates, and unaffordable mortgages, these latest figures hint at a slight steadying of the housing market.
“While a slight uptick may at first glance appear to be the start of a return to a more buoyant market, interest rates hikes are yet to be put on pause. If the Bank of England opts to increase them again at the MPC meeting in May, we could see a further dip in transactions as more pressure is placed on people’s finances. House prices have been slowly declining in recent months, reflecting the decreased level of demand, and should transactions remain subdued then we can expect them to fall further as sellers compete for buyers.
“Mortgage rates are expected to fall throughout the year, but if inflation remains sticky and the Bank of England opts to hike rates, we could see some lenders increase their mortgage rates once more. However, competition between lenders will likely keep any rises much lower than the highs witnessed at the end of last year.
“For those still keen to move home or take their first step onto the property ladder, where possible it may be worth considering a fix-term deal for two years to make the most of lower predicted rates in 2025. If you are looking to opt for a tracker mortgage to see you out of the current period of inflated rates, it is important to consider the potential for further BoE rate rises and the impact this would have on your monthly outgoings. Given the market remains fairly unpredictable, it is important to seek professional advice to ensure you make the best choice for your personal financial circumstances.”
